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NEGATIVE MARKING AT THE CIVIL SERVICES PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION

A STRATEGY

A major change that has been incorporated in the pattern of the Civil Services Examination from the year 2007 is the introduction of penalty marks for wrong answers or negative marking at the Preliminary examination.

The Civil Services Examination is conducted in two parts i.e., the Preliminary Examination and the Main Examination. The Preliminary Examination serves as a Screening Test for the Main examination. The Preliminary Examination was introduced in the year 1979 on the recommendations of the Kothari committee. The Kothari Committee recommended that an Objective Type Examination should be conducted to weed out the non serious aspirants and to bring the number of aspirants to a manageable number. When the system was introduced, there was criticism from some quarters that an objective type examination is amenable to guessing and a candidate by sheer random marking, may safely hope to get a certain percentage of marks under the law of probability. However, these fears were unfounded. Since 1979, to date, there have been no cases of candidates claiming that they have qualified at the examination by wild guess work. All those who have tried their hand at the examination agree that it is, in reality - one long ordeal.

The system of recruitment introduced by the Kothari Committee was sought to be reviewed by the Satish Chandra Committee in the year 1988. The Satish Chandra Committee reviewed the scheme of the examination and made significant recommendations. One of the recommendations was the introduction of negative marking (or penalty marks for wrong answers ) at the Preliminary examination.

What is the rationale behind negative marking ? " While answering the Test Booklets, there is a possibility that a candidate may have no knowledge of the subject but would make a guess and shade the most plausible answer in the multiple choice. As per the existing practice if the answer is correct, he gets credit for it but for a wrong answer, there is no deduction of marks (i.e., negative marking ). Since the purpose of the Preliminary Examination is to pick up the competent and serious-minded candidates, it is considered expedient to introduce negative marking for wrong answers. This would give an advantage to the candidate who has a thorough knowledge of the subject and would eliminate candidates, who have merely superficial knowledge and want to score by mere guess work. In other words, introduction of negative marking for wrong answers would screen out the less serious candidates. However, if a candidate leaves a question unanswered, it would be an evidence that he is an honest candidate, who does not claim to know the answer and there should be no negative marking for this".

Citing the above rationale, the Satish Chandra Committee recommended a 50% penalty for wrong answers. This recommendation is being implemented from the year 2007 with a reduced penalty i.e., 1/3^rd of the marks (0.33) assigned to a question will be deducted in case of a wrong answer as a penalty.

This change has been major source of anxiety to most of the serious students ever since it has been announced. The General Studies paper at the Preliminary examination comprises 150 questions and covers a wide range of areas. Each question has a multitude of options, all of which seem equally applicable and in such a situation the candidate has no choice but to resort to guessing. For the last few years, most of the serious aspirants have openly admitted that they have answered at least 40 per cent of the questions by guess work. In the present scenario, wrong guessing leads to penalties and this is the apparent source of anxiety.

SHOULD YOU STOP GUESSING ? There is probably more controversy surrounding the issue of guessing than any other. If you ask several people for advise, you will surely get conflicting answers. Guesses are of two types: Wild guesses ( where the answer sheet is marked at random hoping that some answers will be correct following the law of probability ) and Educated guesses (where the candidate is able to eliminate at least two of the four choices and has to choose between two choices ). It is unlikely that you will profit from wild guessing. Educated guessing, on the other hand, can have a positive effect on your score and could be the life line between success and failure. In general it pays to make educated guesses. To understand why this is so, we need to extrapolate and understand the probable effects of guessing.

THE GENERAL STUDIES SCENARIO

Consider the following situation : You know only 70 questions accurately out of the 150 questions in the General Studies paper and therefore to avoid any penalty whatsoever you stop at the 70^th question. You will end up with only 70 marks. In the other 80 questions, you may have partial knowledge in about 40 questions and no idea whatsoever about the others. In this scenario, it would be advisable for you to attempt the other questions as the law of probability dictates that you will benefit from such a move. The table gives a hypothetical numerical analysis of the above situation:

No of questions answered	Number omitted	Number correct	Number incorrect	Penalty marks	Total score
70	80	70	0	0	70
80	70	75	5	1.65	73.35
90	60	80	10	3.3	76.7
100	50	85	15	4.95	80.05
110	40	90	20	6.6	83.4
120	30	95	25	8.25	86.75
130	20	100	30	9.9	90.1
140	10	105	35	11.55	93.45
150	0	110	40	13.2	96.8

In the above table, we have assumed that you will be correct in half of the questions that you attempt and will be incorrect in the other half. Even then, in the final tally you are scoring at least 20 marks more than what you would have scored by not guessing. Thus, the real guessing penalty is what you impose on yourself by not guessing when you should.

Many aspirants who have faced the exam before may feel that the above assumption is highly optimistic and it is utopian to assume that half of the guesses will be correct. Let us, look at a different scenario where the strike rate is random and lower than 50%.

Number answered	Number omitted	Number correct	Number incorrect	Penalty marks	Total score
70	80	70	0	0	70
80	70	75	5	1.65	73.35
90	60	80	10	3.3	76.7
95	55	83	12	3.96	79.4
100	50	85	15	4.95	80.05
105	45	87	18	5.94	81.06
110	40	90	20	6.6	83.4
115	35	93	22	7.26	85.74
120	30	95	25	8.25	86.75
130	20	100	30	9.9	90.1
140	10	105	35	11.55	93.45
150	0	110	40	13.2	96.8

Here, we have assumed a lower strike rate for some sections and an average strike rate for the others. Even then, you stand to gain by guessing rather than abstaining from doing so.

THE OPTIONAL

The same rationale can be applied for the optional paper where each correct response fetches you 2 ½ marks and each incorrect response penalizes you by 0.833 marks. In the optional paper, where the syllabus is clearly defined and almost all the questions are from familiar areas educated guessing is relatively easier and wild guessing may not be necessary at all.

A hypothetical numerical analysis for the optional is given below with the assumption that 50% of the guesses will be correct :

Number answered	Number omitted	Number correct	Total score before penalty	Number incorrect	Penalty marks	Total score after penalty
60	60	60	150.0	0	0	150.00
70	50	65	162.5	5	4.165	158.33
80	40	70	175.0	10	8.33	166.67
90	30	75	187.5	15	12.49	175.01
100	20	80	200.0	20	16.66	183.34
110	10	85	212.5	25	20.82	191.68
120	0	90	225.0	30	24.99	200.01
120	0	100	250.0	20	16.66	233.34
120	0	105	262.5	15	12.49	250.01

Thus it pays to guess both in the General Studies and the Optional. The strike rate is far higher in the optional than in General Studies.

Does the new system warrant any change in the strategy of preparation ? As there is a penalty, it is better that you leave nothing to chance in your optional. This can be achieved by practicing simulated examinations. In General Studies you can strengthen your weak areas and focus on current affairs so that the number of educated guesses is more than the number of wild guesses.

STRATEGY FOR GUESSING In the General Studies Paper, most of the candidates feel that they are poor guessers. However, there is no such thing as a poor guesser. For the sake of argument, however, suppose you were a poor guesser and that when you guessed on those 15 questions, you got twice as many wrong (10) as you got right (5). Even in this scenario, you would have received 5 marks for the correct ones (1 x 5) and lost 3.3 marks for the incorrect ones increasing your score by 1.7 marks. Applying the same logic to the optional, if you attempt 15 questions and get 5 correct (5 x 2.5= 12.5) and 10 wrong ( 10 x 0.833 = 8.33) you would still end up with an added score of 4.17. Your score would have increased by 4.17 marks. In most of the situations, you will be able to eliminate two out of four choices. In such a case, the law of probability dictates that there is a 69% chance of your answer being correct. Take a chance, you will profit from it. What if you can't eliminate 2 or 3 of the choices? Even then you can take a chance in a limited number of questions. In the optional, do not take wild guesses in the Assertion and Reason questions. It is safer not to make even educated guesses between response 'a' and response 'b' as there is a thin line of difference between the two. Do not answer these questions, as such questions (where there is a confusion between the answer 'a' and the answer 'b' ) will be only 3 or 4 in number and will not make a significant difference in the final tally. If it is really a wild guess, don't agonize over it. Don't spend too much time thinking 'should I pick 'a' ? The last time I guessed, I chose 'a' : may be this time I should pick 'd'. I am really not sure, but I haven't had too many 'a' answers lately; so may be its time. STOP : A GUESS IS JUST THAT…….. A GUESS. Take your pick and move ahead without wasting time. Do not make wild guesses due to the lack of time i.e., if you have only 5 minutes and 20 questions to answer, do not answer all of them by shading the alternatives. Take educated guesses and leave the rest. Honesty pays………………..

Lastly, let us once again repeat the golden rule - The real guessing penalty is not the one that the examining body uses to prevent you from guessing…………… The real guessing penalty is the one you impose on yourself by not guessing when you should.

by

Gopala Krishna,

Director,

Brain Tree.

Hyderabad.

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